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, please contact the Customer Centre on: Tel: 0370 900 0100 Fax: 0370 900 5050 Email: [email protected] If you are outside the UK: Tel: +44 330 135 0000 Fax: +44 330 135 0050 Introduction Sir Francis Galton is credited with producing the first modern weather map in 1875 showing areas

in a number of different ways including from satellite data, by radar and by LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging). The Met Office uses an instrument called LiDAR to measure ash clouds. LiDAR works by sending pulses of laser light through the atmosphere, which is scattered by volcanic ash particles. Some

model is able to capture the heavy nature of showers. The Regional 12km model tends to underestimate the intensity of showers, giving more widespread light rainfall. 9 Working together on UK Climate Projections Local (2.2km) better represents cold winter days and the number of intense cold spells

- many should see a decent amount of sunshine. “With the exception of the southeast at first, where it will be rather cool to start the weekend, temperatures are generally unremarkable for the time of year, close to or a little above average. However, it will feel a little warmer with light winds

hold in the August to October period (51% likelihood in NOAA forecast). While forecasts looking this far ahead are inherently uncertain, particularly when issued at this time of year, there is a consistent message emerging from many international modelling centres. Much More Likely Below Normal Near

are consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions. ENSO-neutral remains most likely early in this period. However, through autumn the likelihood of La Niña developing increases. By late autumn (October-November-December period), NOAA Climate Prediction Centre gives a 50- 60 % chance of a short-lived La Niña

, where outbreaks of rain and drizzle are expected. Some rain may also affect parts of Wales and the southwest for a time. Elsewhere, cloud cover will be more variable, with a few isolated showers breaking out later in the day. While most of these will be light, there is a low risk that some could

Thursday will begin with some early fog patches across western areas, but these will soon lift to leave a largely sunny day across much of England and Wales. Further north, Northern Ireland and particularly Scotland will see more in the way of cloud, with outbreaks of mainly light rain and drizzle

settled conditions across much of the UK, with most areas enjoying dry weather and sunny spells. Temperatures will be close to the seasonal average, though it will feel pleasantly warm in the sunshine, especially where winds remain light. Eastern and southeastern England may see more in the way of cloud

'Eight kilometres' 9999 = 10 km or more; 0000 = less than 50 metres -SHRA 9 Significant changes FEW005 SCT010 SCTO18CB BKN025 'Light rain showers' 'Few at 500 feet, scattered at one thousand feet, scattered cumulonimbus at one thousand eight hundred feet. Broken at two thousand five hundred feet