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skill for extratropical cyclones and windstorms Christidis et al. The extremely wet Match of 2017 in Peru 2018 papers Dunstone et al. Predictability of European winter 2016/2017 Kennedy et al. Global and regional climate in 2017 Smith et al. Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed

-month, but eastern areas were drier. Total rainfall amounts for the season have been unexceptional, mostly within 25% of average. Sunshine has also shown a contrast, being rather more than normal in September, but well below average for most areas during October, then broadly closer to normal

to previous observed UK conditions, for possible UK temperature, precipitation and wind speed in the coming season: COLD, NEAR AVERAGE and MILD for temperature WET, NEAR AVERAGE and DRY for precipitation. CALM, NEAR AVERAGE and WINDY for wind speed. The NEAR AVERAGE category represents typical conditions

but cold far in the northwest (2) Note: Very wet in the south, normal elsewhere (3) Note: Wet in parts of the north, normal* elsewhere * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season). Climate Outlook Global: December to September Current Status 11 Current

Storm Ali - which is the first storm to be named by the Met Office and Met Éireann this season - will bring very strong winds to Northern Ireland, Scotland, northern England and parts of north Wales tomorrow (Wednesday 19 September 2018). An Amber National Severe Weather Warning is in place

is typically rather chilly, with average daily highs of 7 Celsius, and overnight lows of -1, and shorter days with around 4 hours of sunshine. March tends to have around 12 wet days in the month with snow and ice fairly common, especially at the start of the month. By late May the average daily highs

to trigger public health warnings. Here we a seeing a 16-fold increase! 14 Working together on UK Climate Projections Projecting future seasons using the Local (2.2km) The Local (2.2km) ensemble suggests: Summer Summers will drier by 16- 46% and winters will be wetter by 16-42%. Winter Projected

Forecast of July- August-September 2022 season rainfall in the Sahel and other regions of tropical North Africa: Preliminary forecast 1 FORECAST OF JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER 2022 SEASON RAINFALL IN THE SAHEL AND OTHER REGIONS OF TROPICAL NORTH AFRICA: PRELIMINARY FORECAST Andrew Colman Met Office

Forecast of July- August-September 2022 season rainfall in the Sahel and other regions of tropical North Africa: Updated forecast 1 FORECAST OF JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER 2022 SEASON RAINFALL IN THE SAHEL AND OTHER REGIONS OF TROPICAL NORTH AFRICA: UPDATED FORECAST Andrew Colman Met Office Hadley Centre

Seasonal to decadal forecasts Although climate is expected to warm over the coming century in response to increasing levels of greenhouse gases, regional changes over the coming seasons to a decade or more are likely to be dominated by unforced natural variability of the climate system. Some