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to determine which hazard to prioritise. Hazards may operate on different timescales, such as a seasonal timescale (severe wet season, severe winter, extended heat wave), a monthly timescale (severe wet period, cold, hot period), a weekly timescale (typhoons, hurricanes), a daily timescale

phases of the AMO have been associated with a variety of impacts. The positive phase has been associated with reduced Arctic sea ice, melting of the Greenland ice sheet, increased hurricane activity in the North Atlantic and increased rainfall over the Sahel region of sub-Saharan Africa. The cold

Increase in tropical cyclone risk to coastal regions Also known as hurricanes in the North Atlantic and typhoons in the northwest Pacific, tropical cyclones have maximum wind speeds of at least 74 miles per hour and can be up to 1000 kilometres in diameter. Research by Imperial College London as part

) “Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005.” Geophys. Res. Lett., 33:L12704 von Schuckman, K. and P-Y. Le Traon (2011) “How well can we derive Global Ocean Indicators form Argo data?” Ocean Science Discussions, 8,999-1024. Doi:10.1594/osd-8- 999-2011 Zhang, R., and Coauthors, (2013

Valerie W Wilbert *These letters are not included. This ensures we are in line with the US National Hurricane Centre naming convention and will maintain consistency for official storm naming in the North Atlantic. 3 | Barometer | In brief Back to contents Fast facts about the new supercomputer Name

and cloud – all created on the Visual Cortex weather graphics systems and shared on Facebook. In addition an image-based weather explainer highlighting the difference between hurricanes, typhoons and cyclone was posted on the Met Office Twitter account. To plan future content, the team has a grid

to be run operationally for TCs, enhancing forecasts and warnings for these devastating storms in support of our international partners and civil protection agencies. Forecasts for Hurricane Irma (September 2017) from the MOGREPS-G global ensemble (20 km resolution) and the equivalent prototype MOGREPS

beforehand rather than trying to deal with the risk when it occurs. Risks can be influenced by a number of factors and can occur at various levels and be of different types : Figure 16. Levels of Risks MACRO Example: A major natural disaster striking (floods, hurricane, earthquake, etc.) NATIONAL Example: Non-ratification of a new law or change in an existing one (e.g.: new environmental regulations)

anomalies in summer. AMV also exerts broader influences on decadal and longer time scales that include rainfall in northeast Brazil and the Sahel, Atlantic hurricanes and North American (as well as European) summer climate (Knight et al., 2006). AMV is associated with low-frequency variability

Hurricane Season Forecasts Crisis Area Modelling International support services (briefing to UK government) Global Guidance Unit Services (GGU) (Global Operational forecast expertise) Global Long-Range Outlook (Produced by Science) Global daily weather impact assessment Global incident forecasts