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The impacts of extreme rainfall could be more frequent and severe than had previously been thought at the last UN climate conference, COP25, two years ago in Madrid. A new generation of climate models and the latest IPCC assessment (AR6) have provided a new light to look at the recent catastrophic

-member tropical cyclone tracks (left), probability plume of the same (centre) and box-whisker plots of central wind-speed and pressure (right). The solid cyan line shows the observations and previous forecasts to help gauge forecast performance of this system so far, top panel shows number of members

and their corresponding parameters. Value Description Value Description NA Not available 0 Clear night 16 Sleet shower (night) 1 Sunny day 17 Sleet shower (day) 2 Partly cloudy (night) 18 Sleet 3 Partly cloudy (day) 19 Hail shower (night) 4 Not used 20 Hail shower (day) 5 Mist 21 Hail 6 Fog 22 Light snow shower

evening will give way to a clear and calm night. Winds will fall light, and while there is a small chance of some very localised mist or fog patches forming by dawn, these are expected to be short-lived. Minimum temperatures will dip to around 13°C, offering a comfortable night for those staying

the morning. Winds will be mostly light, and temperatures will be very mild once again. After a very mild start to the week, temperatures will fall but will largely stay above average by the weekend Feeling fresher for all from Saturday🌡️ pic.twitter.com/pkc4MSR4Bi — Met Office (@metoffice

On Wednesday, low cloud and areas of patchy light rain or drizzle will linger across central and southern England and Wales, gradually clearing southwards as the day progresses. Northern and western Scotland will be windy and cloudy, with outbreaks of rain and drizzle becoming more persistent

, it will remain blustery across some north eastern parts through this afternoon, and it’ll feel cooler than yesterday with top temperatures reaching 17-18C. Scotland and Northern Ireland will stay mostly cloudy with some light showers whilst sunshine across England and Wales gives way to cloud

of the UK, with sunny spells developing widely. There is a small chance of a few light afternoon showers, mainly affecting eastern parts of Scotland and England. Later in the day, cloud will begin to thicken from the northwest, bringing the likelihood of mainly light rain by the evening. Winds will remain

chance of a light morning shower in southern areas, but most places will enjoy a fine day. Temperatures will range from rather cool in the northwest to warm in the southeast, with highs of 24-26°C expected across central, southern, and eastern England. Isolated spots may reach 27°C. Temperatures

across parts of northwest Scotland and possibly the north of Northern Ireland, where it will remain breezy. Elsewhere, light winds and variable cloud cover may bring the odd light shower, but these will be isolated. 🌡️ Heat is building across the UK this week, temperatures could reach 32-33°C