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• Slide 1

  of Focus – wcssp context Problems of interest • Monsoon Weather and Climate Prediction • Heat/Cold Waves in other seasons • Cyclones during pre- and post-monsoon seasons • Monsoon depressions/low pressure systems • Extreme rainfall events • Lightening, hailstorms and thunderstorms New Scientific

• MuhammadAdnan_Abid_ppt.pptx

  summer 2017 Floods in Florida October 2015 Harbin, China South Asia including Pakistan Source: BBC Frost Risk Climate sensitive diseases Water, Agriculture, Biodiversity Frost Risk for vineyards Infectious diseases Source: Decanter.com Source: Carbon brief Source: UN water Source: Arctic Youth

• typhoons.indd

  China coasts, including the PRD. Once fully developed, these could be issued in the winter for the following year’s tropical cyclone season (June-November) 2 . 2019 tropical cyclone landfall risk forecast for East Asia. Issued 1 May 2019 1 Camp et al (2019). The western Pacific subtropical high

• Microsoft Word - high-impact-low-likelihood-scenarios-for-the-uk-scenario-report_final

  ‘Wet’ days: greater than the 1981-2010 90 th percentile daily precipitation ‘Windy’ days: greater than the 1981-2010 90 th percentile daily mean windspeed The thresholds are calculated separately by month and region, and the frequencies of exceedance averaged by nation and season. Based on UKCP18

• cssp_china_science__modelling.pdf

  characteristics of the East Asian Summer Monsoon compared to regional scale models, including the daily cycle of rainfall across many regions of China. Li et al (2019) focussed on an event in 2016 where 600mm of rainfall fell over parts of eastern China in just 6 days leading to catastrophic flooding

• Mixed conditions bring warm and wet summer for the UK

  and August’s respective average temperatures were generally closer to average. However, despite above average temperatures for the season, it has also been a wetter than average summer, with July leading the way in terms of rainfall; which was provisionally the UK’s sixth wettest July on record

• Microsoft Word - high-impact-low-likelihood-scenarios-for-the-uk-summary_final

  . December average temperatures 6 o C above the long-term mean in England from the Midlands southwards, and 5 o C above the long-term mean elsewhere. Average seasonal temperatures 3 o C above the long-term mean across the UK. Compound months and seasons November to April Wet (rainfall 2.5 times

• Understanding convergence zones and the Intertropical Convergence Zone

  continue to converge, wet conditions can persist, sometimes resulting in significant rainfall totals and even flooding. Convergence lines are not limited to a particular season and can occur at any time of year. During the summer months, local sea breezes can help form convergence lines

• Met Office seasonal and climate models explained

  Seasonal to decadal forecasts Although climate is expected to warm over the coming century in response to increasing levels of greenhouse gases, regional changes over the coming seasons to a decade or more are likely to be dominated by unforced natural variability of the climate system. Some

• met_office_pagasa_february_workshop_report.pdf

  rainfall change; some evidence of a shift towards a decreasing frequency but increasing intensity of tropical cyclones; and understanding that El Nino events typically lead to drier conditions in the dry season and more extremes in the wet season. The scientists stated that such information