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• Early warnings fit for today and the future

  The WMO’s Early Warnings for All initiative will ensure that every person on earth will be protected by early warning systems by early 2027. The Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC) programme, supported by UK aid, aimed to help advance implementation of impact-based forecasting

• Microsoft Word - high-impact-low-likelihood-scenarios-for-the-uk-scenario-report_final

  ‘Wet’ days: greater than the 1981-2010 90 th percentile daily precipitation ‘Windy’ days: greater than the 1981-2010 90 th percentile daily mean windspeed The thresholds are calculated separately by month and region, and the frequencies of exceedance averaged by nation and season. Based on UKCP18

• Mixed conditions bring warm and wet summer for the UK

  and August’s respective average temperatures were generally closer to average. However, despite above average temperatures for the season, it has also been a wetter than average summer, with July leading the way in terms of rainfall; which was provisionally the UK’s sixth wettest July on record

• Microsoft Word - high-impact-low-likelihood-scenarios-for-the-uk-summary_final

  . December average temperatures 6 o C above the long-term mean in England from the Midlands southwards, and 5 o C above the long-term mean elsewhere. Average seasonal temperatures 3 o C above the long-term mean across the UK. Compound months and seasons November to April Wet (rainfall 2.5 times

• Understanding convergence zones and the Intertropical Convergence Zone

  continue to converge, wet conditions can persist, sometimes resulting in significant rainfall totals and even flooding. Convergence lines are not limited to a particular season and can occur at any time of year. During the summer months, local sea breezes can help form convergence lines

• UK and Global extreme events – Heatwaves

  . On a regional scale, Europe, North America, Asia and Australasia have very likely (over 90% probability) observed an increase in heat extremes and decrease in cold extremes. Europe, Asia and Australia have also likely (over 66% probability) observed an increase in heatwaves. Due to less data

• Slide 1

  of Focus – wcssp context Problems of interest • Monsoon Weather and Climate Prediction • Heat/Cold Waves in other seasons • Cyclones during pre- and post-monsoon seasons • Monsoon depressions/low pressure systems • Extreme rainfall events • Lightening, hailstorms and thunderstorms New Scientific

• typhoons.indd

  China coasts, including the PRD. Once fully developed, these could be issued in the winter for the following year’s tropical cyclone season (June-November) 2 . 2019 tropical cyclone landfall risk forecast for East Asia. Issued 1 May 2019 1 Camp et al (2019). The western Pacific subtropical high

• MuhammadAdnan_Abid_ppt.pptx

  summer 2017 Floods in Florida October 2015 Harbin, China South Asia including Pakistan Source: BBC Frost Risk Climate sensitive diseases Water, Agriculture, Biodiversity Frost Risk for vineyards Infectious diseases Source: Decanter.com Source: Carbon brief Source: UN water Source: Arctic Youth

• marcia-zilli-jerry-samuel-neil-hart---future-changes-in-the-characteristics-of-the-dry-to-wet-transition-period-in-southern-africa-and-south-america-using-convection-permitting-simulations.pdf

  and the Environment, University of Oxford, UK Dry-to-wet transition Two-tier approach: (1) climatologial envelope when the transition should occur (2) dry-to-wet transition in each year/season (1) Gradient (x100) Filtered precipitation Filtered Precipitation (60-points second order Butterworth filter