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China coasts, including the PRD. Once fully developed, these could be issued in the winter for the following year’s tropical cyclone season (June-November) 2 . 2019 tropical cyclone landfall risk forecast for East Asia. Issued 1 May 2019 1 Camp et al (2019). The western Pacific subtropical high

will remember Autumn 2019 as a very wet season, with significant flooding in parts of the Midlands and days of prolonged rainfall. But this wasn’t the case across the whole of the UK.  There was been a marked difference in rainfall amounts between eastern parts of England and north western Scotland

-Month Outlook July to September - Rainfall Meanwhile, conditions have been more mixed across southern Africa; April was wet in many places, whilst March and May had relatively normal rainfall overall. Outlook: Whilst the ‘Long Rains’ season officially ended in May, it is likely to be wetter than

coming to end. Rainfall returning to normal for most of these areas though Cameroon is likely to be wetter than normal. Signals are weak across East Africa during the ‘Short Rains’ season. Somalia, Kenya and eastern Ethiopia are likely to be drier than normal whilst parts of Tanzania and Mozambique

than normal conditions across East Africa in April gave way to a normal May, coinciding with the end of the Long Rains season. It’s been normal to very dry in June. 3-Month Outlook August to October - Rainfall Central Africa was very dry in May but wet conditions prevailed in Chad during June

, but wet or very wet in the southwest and east (May) (3) Note: Normal in the north (4) Note: Very Wet in the southwest, very dry in the north, normal elsewhere * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season). Climate Outlook Africa: May to February Current

Seasonal to decadal forecasts Although climate is expected to warm over the coming century in response to increasing levels of greenhouse gases, regional changes over the coming seasons to a decade or more are likely to be dominated by unforced natural variability of the climate system. Some

to be wetter than normal. Many parts of western and the west of southern Africa are likely to experience dry conditions, with parts of Cameroon and Gabon much more likely to be drier than normal. Looking further ahead to September onwards, a drier than normal Short Rains season is likely across East Africa

Northern Ireland has had its third hottest summer on record, and Scotland its fourth. The summer of 2021 has been a season of contrasting fortunes across the UK, with the north and west of the UK experiencing a warmer, drier and sunnier season compared to average while parts of the south east have

been unsettled, very wet, and dull with a succession of frontal systems bringing rain and wind. There was a cold start to March (Benson in Oxfordshire recorded -4.6°C on the 3 rd ) with snow falling on the 2 nd across parts of south-west England causing disruption to travel. After the first few days