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1991/92 to 2020/21. Source: Met Office HadUK-Grid and Met Éireann’s gridded precipitation datasets. Climate change also had a strong influence on autumn and winter total rainfall. In a pre-industrial climate, wet periods such as the 2023-24 October-March season had an estimated return period of 1

and January respectively. The Short Rains season (October to December) in East Africa brought above average rainfall to many areas in November with most parts very wet. December was mostly near-normal while January was wet in many areas. During November, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe and parts

increase is observed in tropical regions of South America, Northern Africa and through Asia. Similarly, the number of warm nights in these regions have increased by over eight days per decade, leading to a doubling since the late 1970s.  The variability of rainfall over space and time tends to be greater

, cold in the south (4) Note: Wet in the far south, otherwise normal. (5) Note: Normal in the north, very dry in the south * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season). Climate Outlook Global: May to February Current Status 11 Current Status – Caribbean

as this is the dry season in these areas. In contrast, this period tends to be part of the wetter part of the year across the south of the Arabian Peninsula and wetter than normal conditions are likely for Yemen and Oman. It is likely to be drier than normal across the Caribbean. Atlantic Tropical Storm outlook

three months. It is likely to be wetter than normal than across southern Europe. Tropical Cyclone outlook: September is normally the peak of the North Atlantic tropical cyclone season. The latest forecast, issued 01 August 2023, suggests a more active than usual North Atlantic tropical storm

to have near-normal rainfall; although climatologically, very little rain falls in this period. It is likely to be wetter than normal for parts of Yemen, as well as Guyana, and the south of the Caribbean. Atlantic Tropical Storm outlook: the 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is from June

average for the first half of the month (Fyvie Castle, Aberdeenshire recorded a maximum temperature of 25.4°C on 11 th May) and slightly above or close to average for the second half. It was a wet season with heavy rain in southern and central England during March, in northern England and Scotland

average for the first half of the month (Fyvie Castle, Aberdeenshire recorded a maximum temperature of 25.4°C on 11 th May) and slightly above or close to average for the second half. It was a wet season with heavy rain in southern and central England during March, in northern England and Scotland

are much more likely to be wetter than normal over the next three months, which coincides with the beginning of the region’s wet season. 3-Month Outlook May to July - Rainfall Much More Likely Below Normal Near-Normal Above Normal Likely Left: Middle East and North Africa Right: Caribbean region Likely