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will determine whether conditions turn fully dry or remain unsettled in the south. Tropical developments and added complexity Adding further complexity to the forecast is Tropical Depression 7 in the Atlantic, which is expected to develop into a tropical storm and potentially a hurricane

: www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/ weather/tropical-cyclones/ hurricane www.oceanservice.noaa.gov/ facts/hurricane.html www.cdc.gov/features/ hurricanepreparedness/index.html Tornado Weithiau fe'i gelwir yn drowynt. Mae tornado yn golofn o aer sy'n troi'n gyflym ac sy'n ymestyn o waelod cwmwl storm ac

, immediately south-west of Ireland. The forecast hurricane forecast winds (sustained winds of over 64Kt (74mph) and phenomenal sea state (peak to trough significant wave height 14.0m or more) are each at the top of their respective scales, illustrate the exceptional severity of this storm. The image

level) vorticity is associated with increased hurricane activity. An increase in vorticity under climate change could c○ Crown Copyright 2016 12 Figure 9: Change in June to August mean wind shear (U at 200hPa - 850 hPa) from GCM (top) and downscaled (bottom) simulations under a RCP 8.5 scenario

about the response to the Derry floods in August and ex Hurricane Ophelia. The Met Office science advisory group meeting was held in November which WW attended as an observer. Attendance at PAG-Reach in December and will be attending the Interdepartmental Met Office Strategy Group on 25 th January. WW

of cloud top height Tropical cyclones Tropical cyclones at km-scale One year of DestinE fc Hurricane Irma (2017-09-05 00 UTC T+18) … improved mesoscale features & intensity but lingering slow propagation bias What have we learnt? Summary of BL parametrization • Orography • Degradation in NH wintertime

satellite, was captured on 31 July 2023, relatively early in the lifetime of the cyclone, when it was still situated well to the south of the Ryukyu Islands and its wind speeds were near their peak, the equivalent of a Category 4 Atlantic hurricane. Credits: Image: © Crown copyright, Met Office, Data

. The August 1986 total was associated with ex-hurricane Charley, but all the others are associated with large-scale autumn or winter low pressure systems – with six of these ten events occurring in October. For the climate district of the Midlands the 3-day total of 67.2mm from 18 to 20 October 2023

height of 25 metres (82 feet) and winds reached hurricane force. The storms made conditions around the coastline exceptionally dangerous. The South West main line railway was severely damaged at Dawlish, Devon during the storm of 4 to 5 February, severing a key transport link to the South West

-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS 7 CAMS aerosol optical depth Multi-layer smoke plumes 0.1 0.2 0.3 1 EarthCARE lidar backscatter Clear-sky Aerosols Clouds 15 August 2024 18 UTC ECMWF DestinE 4.4 km Ice cloud from Hurricane Ernesto Innovating in the exploitation of satellite data: towards all-sky, all-surface