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and the Environment, University of Oxford, UK Dry-to-wet transition Two-tier approach: (1) climatologial envelope when the transition should occur (2) dry-to-wet transition in each year/season (1) Gradient (x100) Filtered precipitation Filtered Precipitation (60-points second order Butterworth filter

‘Wet’ days: greater than the 1981-2010 90 th percentile daily precipitation ‘Windy’ days: greater than the 1981-2010 90 th percentile daily mean windspeed The thresholds are calculated separately by month and region, and the frequencies of exceedance averaged by nation and season. Based on UKCP18

but probabilities of a wetter season than last year and of 10-year extremes are presented. A wetter season than 2018 is favoured in most boxes east of 30E and between 10N and 10S. Elsewhere a drier season than 2018 is likely in most grid boxes. Probabilities of a season drier than any in the past 10 years (2009

Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci., 52(4), 353-369, 2016 pISSN 1976-7633 / eISSN 1976-7951 DOI:10.1007/s13143-016-0004-1 Climate Change Projections over India by a Downscaling Approach Using PRECIS Prasanta Kumar Bal 1,2 , Andimuthu Ramachandran 1 , Kandasamy Palanivelu 1 , Perumal Thirumurugan 1 , Rajadurai

Forecasts for the north-east part of Brazil between 0° S to 10° S and east of 50° W for the February to May wet season.

The wet season is between February and May with considerable year-to-year and decade-to-decade variability. The forecasts are produced using a combination of dynamical forecast models and statistical predictions and include predictions of the most likely of five rainfall categories (very wet, wet

droughts can have adverse impacts on water supplies and crop yield and quality, particularly if the drought occurs during the growing season.  Due to their rapid onset, communities and decision-makers often have less time to prepare for any potential impacts. In 2012, a severe flash drought

monsoon season. This call for research invites contributions that will advance understanding of the representation and predictability of monsoon extreme rainfall events at different scales, and their associated interactions and feedback. Timeline: Stage Target Times The deadline for submitting

start of the MAM 2020 season. The sub-region will experience warmer than normal temperatures through the season. Noting that there was abundant rainfall during October – December 2019 and considering that the coming MAM 2020 rainfall season is anticipated to be wet, all stakeholders are called upon

is similar to figure 1.2a but probabilities of a wetter season than last year and of 10-year extremes are presented. A wetter season than 2019 is predicted to be generally very unlikely. This is not surprising given that 2019 was a record wet year in many locations. With reference to the skill

the implementation of the new service will be shared through workshops to benefit other developing countries across Southern Africa, supporting the WMO’s ambition of a global rollout of IbF. WCSSP Southeast Asia The damage and loss of life caused by severe weather in Southeast Asia is a significant barrier