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. December average temperatures 6 o C above the long-term mean in England from the Midlands southwards, and 5 o C above the long-term mean elsewhere. Average seasonal temperatures 3 o C above the long-term mean across the UK. Compound months and seasons November to April Wet (rainfall 2.5 times

‘Wet’ days: greater than the 1981-2010 90 th percentile daily precipitation ‘Windy’ days: greater than the 1981-2010 90 th percentile daily mean windspeed The thresholds are calculated separately by month and region, and the frequencies of exceedance averaged by nation and season. Based on UKCP18

and the Environment, University of Oxford, UK Dry-to-wet transition Two-tier approach: (1) climatologial envelope when the transition should occur (2) dry-to-wet transition in each year/season (1) Gradient (x100) Filtered precipitation Filtered Precipitation (60-points second order Butterworth filter

but probabilities of a wetter season than last year and of 10-year extremes are presented. A wetter season than 2018 is favoured in most boxes east of 30E and between 10N and 10S. Elsewhere a drier season than 2018 is likely in most grid boxes. Probabilities of a season drier than any in the past 10 years (2009

events in Nepal Studying past extreme rainfall events in South Asia has highlighted the importance of the timing and location of monsoon rainfall. Extreme events often occur during years with high variability in monsoon rains, and not necessarily years with above average seasonal rainfall. Extreme

the implementation of the new service will be shared through workshops to benefit other developing countries across Southern Africa, supporting the WMO’s ambition of a global rollout of IbF. WCSSP Southeast Asia The damage and loss of life caused by severe weather in Southeast Asia is a significant barrier

characteristics of the East Asian Summer Monsoon compared to regional scale models, including the daily cycle of rainfall across many regions of China. Li et al (2019) focussed on an event in 2016 where 600mm of rainfall fell over parts of eastern China in just 6 days leading to catastrophic flooding

start of the MAM 2020 season. The sub-region will experience warmer than normal temperatures through the season. Noting that there was abundant rainfall during October – December 2019 and considering that the coming MAM 2020 rainfall season is anticipated to be wet, all stakeholders are called upon

coast, but elsewhere in the UK, summer is typically the most thundery season. This variability means that maps showing thunderstorm frequency can differ depending on the period of record used. What causes lightning? Lightning is the precursor to thunder and forms within storm clouds through

is similar to figure 1.2a but probabilities of a wetter season than last year and of 10-year extremes are presented. A wetter season than 2019 is predicted to be generally very unlikely. This is not surprising given that 2019 was a record wet year in many locations. With reference to the skill