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Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC) Met Office Partnership newsletter October 2022 Welcome Welcome to the final edition of our ARRCC Met Office Partnership newsletter. This edition covers the period from June to October 2022, highlighting some of our key activities and events

and the Environment, University of Oxford, UK Dry-to-wet transition Two-tier approach: (1) climatologial envelope when the transition should occur (2) dry-to-wet transition in each year/season (1) Gradient (x100) Filtered precipitation Filtered Precipitation (60-points second order Butterworth filter

ARRCC newsletter View online version | Share with a friend Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC) Met Office Partnership newsletter September 2020 Welcome Welcome to the latest edition of our ARRCC Met Office Partnership newsletter. This edition covers the period from July

and the IRI Map Room: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/. * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season). (1) Note: Large variations across the country. (2) Note: Hot in the north, cold in the south. (3) Note: Hot in north and west. (4) Note: Very wet

. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S1–S172. Citing a section (example): Yoon, J. H., S.-Y. S. Wang, R. R. Gillies, L. Hipps, B. Kravitz, and P. J. Rasch, 2015: Extreme fire season in California: A glimpse into the future? [in “Explaining Extremes of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc

but probabilities of a wetter season than last year and of 10-year extremes are presented. A wetter season than 2018 is favoured in most boxes east of 30E and between 10N and 10S. Elsewhere a drier season than 2018 is likely in most grid boxes. Probabilities of a season drier than any in the past 10 years (2009

application and ways it can be further enhanced. This application is being used to issue landslide bulletins during the monsoon season to provide communities with more time to act and reduce the impacts of such events. An example of operational impact-based forecasting at the India Meteorological

Forecasts for the north-east part of Brazil between 0° S to 10° S and east of 50° W for the February to May wet season.

The wet season is between February and May with considerable year-to-year and decade-to-decade variability. The forecasts are produced using a combination of dynamical forecast models and statistical predictions and include predictions of the most likely of five rainfall categories (very wet, wet

‘Wet’ days: greater than the 1981-2010 90 th percentile daily precipitation ‘Windy’ days: greater than the 1981-2010 90 th percentile daily mean windspeed The thresholds are calculated separately by month and region, and the frequencies of exceedance averaged by nation and season. Based on UKCP18

% and -36% by 2100. This more intense cycle is also visible in the Sub-Andean mountain range with strongest precipitation decreases around August. In the highlands, this pattern reverses by 2100 with strongest relative precipitation in-and decrease during the dry- and wet season respectively. Because