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the 2011 East African drought be attributed to humaninduced climate change? Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1177–1181, doi:10.1002/grl.50235. Love, R., 2009: Economic drivers of conflict and cooperation in the Horn of Africa. ARP BP 2009/01, Chatham House, 16 pp. [Available online at www .chathamhouse.org

Cotswold Chatham Yarmouth Portland When is the product issued These forecasts are issued hourly, between 70 to 75 minutes prior to their validity. Validity period of the product One hour. Be aware/did you know An illustration of the geographical extent of each area is provided in the UK AIP (ENR section

on transboundary rivers for freshwater supply such as Egypt, Iraq and Syria will therefore be affected by upstream factors, both human and physical. For example, abstraction and damming of the Euphrates River in Turkey has contributed to water shortages in Syria (Chatham House, 2015), while in Egypt