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with a La Niña, a negative IOD can increase the effects of a La Niña, enhancing wetter than normal conditions in parts of Australia and Asia, and drier than normal conditions in East Africa - of particular concern given the current drought conditions in the Horn of Africa. Much More Likely Below

/. Additional Information: (1) Note: Cool or Cold in the north, hot in the south (2) Note: Wet in the northeast, dry in southeast, else normal (3) Note: Very dry in the northeast * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season). Climate Outlook Global: August to May

developing is lower than predictions for ENSO. Should a negative IOD establish then wetter than normal conditions become more likely across Australia and Southern Asia; drier than normal conditions in East Africa for the Short Rains season (October-November-December). 3-Month Outlook September to November

/. Additional Information: (1) Note: Wet in the south (2) Note: Very wet in the north (3) Note: Cool or cold in the north, hot in the south * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season). Climate Outlook Global: June to March Current Status 11 Current Status

later in the season (56% chance during May-July 2022). The effects of La Niña are likely to remain wide-reaching during the northern hemisphere spring. With a couple of notable exceptions (including East Africa) La Niña, very broadly speaking, tends to increase the likelihood of wetter than normal

(dry season). Additional Information: (1) Note: Cold in the east, Warm or Hot in the southwest (2) Note: Wet in the south (3) Note: Hot in the west (4) Note: Wet in the north, Very Dry in the south (5) Note: Very Dry in the east (6) Note: Normal in the east Climate Outlook Africa: June to March

, eastern parts of Kenya, coastal regions of northern Tanzania and western South Sudan. The predicted positive IOD will lead to an increased chance of and wetter than normal “Short Rains” season over East Africa though this doesn’t tend to peak until October and November. Much More Likely Below Normal Near

November for the upcoming winter season. Winter impacts on the UK During winter (December to February), a strongly positive NAO index increases the likelihood of milder-than-average temperatures in northern Europe, including the UK. It also raises the chance of wetter conditions, especially

of the Caribbean, wetter than normal conditions are likely, although the far south of Windward Islands and Guyana are more likely to be drier than normal. Tropical Cyclone outlook: Information can be found here. The climatological peak of the North Atlantic hurricane season is during September though

of the wetter season for North Africa and the northern parts of the Middle East; however, some areas have experienced drier than normal conditions. During September to November, much of the Caribbean region was drier than normal although Haiti and Guyana experienced normal or above normal rainfall