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plan has been developed for Nepal with the aim to test the enhanced national seasonal forecast product during the October to December 2021 and December to February 2021/22 seasons. Climate Analysis for Risk Information & Services in South Asia (CARISSA) - work package 3 Developing gridded climate

outlook in real time at the South Asian Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF). This outlook provides a joint assessment of the upcoming season over South Asia to offer guidance to the region’s NMHSs for their preparations of national-level seasonal outlooks and to support climate-sensitive sectors

in September. Ahead of the Short Rains season in October-December, most parts of East Africa had near-normal rainfall or were dry in August and September. In October, Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia were wet or very wet. Rainfall was mostly near-normal in Southern Africa August and September. In October

with a La Niña, a negative IOD can increase the effects of a La Niña, enhancing wetter than normal conditions in parts of Australia and Asia, and drier than normal conditions in East Africa - of particular concern given the current drought conditions in the Horn of Africa. Much More Likely Below

to increases in rainfall across the tropical land areas. Over the next three months, large parts of southern Asia, Australasia, northern parts of South America, along with southern parts of Africa are likely to be wetter than normal. Meanwhile, parts of Central and East Africa and the Middle East

the past three months, using data from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center and the IRI Map Room: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/. Additional Information: (1) Note: Very wet in the north, normal in the south * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season

developing is lower than predictions for ENSO. Should a negative IOD establish then wetter than normal conditions become more likely across Australia and Southern Asia; drier than normal conditions in East Africa for the Short Rains season (October-November-December). 3-Month Outlook September to November

/. Additional Information: (1) Note: Cool or Cold in the north, hot in the south (2) Note: Wet in the northeast, dry in southeast, else normal (3) Note: Very dry in the northeast * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season). Climate Outlook Global: August to May

/. Additional Information: (1) Note: Wet in the south (2) Note: Very wet in the north (3) Note: Cool or cold in the north, hot in the south * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season). Climate Outlook Global: June to March Current Status 11 Current Status

later in the season (56% chance during May-July 2022). The effects of La Niña are likely to remain wide-reaching during the northern hemisphere spring. With a couple of notable exceptions (including East Africa) La Niña, very broadly speaking, tends to increase the likelihood of wetter than normal