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of the MENA region over the next 3 months, it is likely to be wetter than normal - this is typically a dry period, so rainfall amounts are likely to be small. The exception is western Yemen where it is likely to be drier than normal - this is the wet season, so there is a risk of drought developing

). For example, many RCM experiments for the South Asia region present dry biases over the monsoon season, but wet biases over the Himalayas that are sometimes larger than those seen in the driving GCM simulations (Janes et al., 2019). In this assessment we also consider a set of statistically downscaled

in September. Ahead of the Short Rains season in October-December, most parts of East Africa had near-normal rainfall or were dry in August and September. In October, Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia were wet or very wet. Rainfall was mostly near-normal in Southern Africa August and September. In October

of the Middle East, rainfall was near-normal over the last three months, exceptions being parts of Turkey and Syria which were wet in November. In North Africa, the Caribbean and British Overseas Territories it was near-normal in September, and dry in October and November. Outlook: Over the next three

with a La Niña, a negative IOD can increase the effects of a La Niña, enhancing wetter than normal conditions in parts of Australia and Asia, and drier than normal conditions in East Africa - of particular concern given the current drought conditions in the Horn of Africa. Much More Likely Below

to increases in rainfall across the tropical land areas. Over the next three months, large parts of southern Asia, Australasia, northern parts of South America, along with southern parts of Africa are likely to be wetter than normal. Meanwhile, parts of Central and East Africa and the Middle East

and collaboration for communication of forecasts and risk prior to onset of the forthcoming monsoon season. Blast and rust forecast New emerging strains of wheat rust disease in South Asia, in combination with changes to climate, pose a threat to farmers’ livelihoods. An ARRCC pilot project is adapting

and collaboration for communication of forecasts and risk prior to onset of the forthcoming monsoon season. Blast and rust forecast New emerging strains of wheat rust disease in South Asia, in combination with changes to climate, pose a threat to farmers’ livelihoods. An ARRCC pilot project is adapting

the past three months, using data from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center and the IRI Map Room: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/. Additional Information: (1) Note: Very wet in the north, normal in the south * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season

developing is lower than predictions for ENSO. Should a negative IOD establish then wetter than normal conditions become more likely across Australia and Southern Asia; drier than normal conditions in East Africa for the Short Rains season (October-November-December). 3-Month Outlook September to November