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arrcc_carissa_ws4_extreme_ppn_analysis_part_2_process-based_evaluation.pdf

). For example, many RCM experiments for the South Asia region present dry biases over the monsoon season, but wet biases over the Himalayas that are sometimes larger than those seen in the driving GCM simulations (Janes et al., 2019). In this assessment we also consider a set of statistically downscaled

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to increases in rainfall across the tropical land areas. Over the next three months, large parts of southern Asia, Australasia, northern parts of South America, along with southern parts of Africa are likely to be wetter than normal. Meanwhile, parts of Central and East Africa and the Middle East

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of the Middle East, rainfall was near-normal over the last three months, exceptions being parts of Turkey and Syria which were wet in November. In North Africa, the Caribbean and British Overseas Territories it was near-normal in September, and dry in October and November. Outlook: Over the next three

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developing is lower than predictions for ENSO. Should a negative IOD establish then wetter than normal conditions become more likely across Australia and Southern Asia; drier than normal conditions in East Africa for the Short Rains season (October-November-December). 3-Month Outlook September to November

Climate Analysis for Risk Information & Services in South Asia (CARISSA)

The aim of the CARISSA project was to improve the uptake and use of regional climate change information across South Asia.

monsoon-season rainfall extremes in Nepal - Available here. Part IV - Understanding and quantifying extreme precipitation events in South Asia - Available here  Climate Risk Narratives for the hydropower sector in Nepal - Available here Summary note on Observational rainfall datasets in Nepal

africa-climate-outlook---september-2023-v2.pdf

(dry season). Additional Information: (1) Note: Cold in the east, Warm or Hot in the southwest (2) Note: Wet in the south (3) Note: Hot in the west (4) Note: Wet in the north, Very Dry in the south (5) Note: Very Dry in the east (6) Note: Normal in the east Climate Outlook Africa: June to March

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, eastern parts of Kenya, coastal regions of northern Tanzania and western South Sudan. The predicted positive IOD will lead to an increased chance of and wetter than normal “Short Rains” season over East Africa though this doesn’t tend to peak until October and November. Much More Likely Below Normal Near

global-climate-outlook---september-2023-v2.pdf

/. Additional Information: (1) Note: Wet in the south (2) Note: Very wet in the north (3) Note: Cool or cold in the north, hot in the south * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season). Climate Outlook Global: June to March Current Status 11 Current Status

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the past three months, using data from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center and the IRI Map Room: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/. Additional Information: (1) Note: Very wet in the north, normal in the south * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season

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later in the season (56% chance during May-July 2022). The effects of La Niña are likely to remain wide-reaching during the northern hemisphere spring. With a couple of notable exceptions (including East Africa) La Niña, very broadly speaking, tends to increase the likelihood of wetter than normal

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