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between June and November peaking in September. In the southern hemisphere, the season lasts from November to April but storms remain less common here than in the northern hemisphere. More than one tropical storm can occur in the same ocean and region at once. Due to the coriolis effect, the storm's

Niña, enhancing wetter than normal conditions in parts of Australia and Asia, and drier than normal conditions in East Africa - of particular concern given the current drought conditions in the Horn of Africa. Much More Likely Below Normal Near-Normal Above Normal Likely Likely Much More Likely

Current Status: 3-Month Outlook January to March - Rainfall The latter part of the West Africa Monsoon season was active with many areas wetter than in September. Conditions have been wetter than normal in Central Africa with the Democratic Republic of Congo very wet in November. Uganda, Rwanda and Kenya

which was very wet, and Nigeria which was wet. 3-Month Outlook January to March - Rainfall DRC was very dry in September, with a mix of dry and wet conditions in October and November. Chad and Niger were wet in September. Ahead of the Short Rains season in October-December, most parts of East Africa

of the MENA region over the next 3 months, it is likely to be wetter than normal - this is typically a dry period, so rainfall amounts are likely to be small. The exception is western Yemen where it is likely to be drier than normal - this is the wet season, so there is a risk of drought developing

rainfall during the month (dry season). Climate Outlook Global: July to April Current Status 10 Current Status – MENA – North Africa Current Status: Temperature Current Status: Rainfall July August September July August September Mauritania Mixed (1) Mixed (1) Hot Very Wet Normal* Mixed (2) Morocco

). For example, many RCM experiments for the South Asia region present dry biases over the monsoon season, but wet biases over the Himalayas that are sometimes larger than those seen in the driving GCM simulations (Janes et al., 2019). In this assessment we also consider a set of statistically downscaled

in September. Ahead of the Short Rains season in October-December, most parts of East Africa had near-normal rainfall or were dry in August and September. In October, Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia were wet or very wet. Rainfall was mostly near-normal in Southern Africa August and September. In October

with a La Niña, a negative IOD can increase the effects of a La Niña, enhancing wetter than normal conditions in parts of Australia and Asia, and drier than normal conditions in East Africa - of particular concern given the current drought conditions in the Horn of Africa. Much More Likely Below

and collaboration for communication of forecasts and risk prior to onset of the forthcoming monsoon season. Blast and rust forecast New emerging strains of wheat rust disease in South Asia, in combination with changes to climate, pose a threat to farmers’ livelihoods. An ARRCC pilot project is adapting