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this period. The South Asian Monsoon (SAM) is underway with the northward shift of rains close to climatology in terms of timings. Predictions for the SAM remain finely balanced with mixed signals from longer range forecast systems. Overall, wetter than normal conditions are more likely for many

on global temperatures through this period. Consistent with a warming climate, nearly all land areas are likely or very likely to experience warmer than normal conditions through the next three months. The main exceptions over parts of Africa and southern Asia owing to likely active monsoon seasons

changes, and vary geographically. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are unlikely to become significantly wetter on average, but there is medium confidence for wetter winter and spring months in higher elevation Central Asia (eastern Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, northern Afghanistan

at three regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the Co- Ordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) South Asia initiative and conclude that precipitation in the wet season will decrease within a range of 0 to -16%, with an associated reduction in hydropower electricity production of up

Mediterranean regions of northwest Africa (Morocco, Alegria and Tunisia) and southwest Europe. Across the Caribbean it is likely to be drier than normal in the far north and wetter than normal in the far south. Tropical Cyclone outlook: The North Atlantic Hurricane season has now ended, though further storms

precipitation. Precipitation is spatially averaged over South Asia and each of the country-specific domains in the plot titles. The black line represents the line of best fit between the 12 points. Figure A17-ii - As caption for Figure 17-iError! Reference source not found., but for the OND season.

variability, models are in fairly good agreement in predicting a slight increase in the likelihood of wetter than normal conditions across central Asia and drier than normal conditions across parts of southeast Asia; however there is an increased likelihood of wetter than normal conditions across parts

wetter than normal conditions in parts of Australia and Asia, and drier than normal conditions in East Africa. Much More Likely Below Normal Near-Normal Above Normal Likely Likely Much More Likely Climate Outlook Global: July to April Overview 6 Current Status Current Status maps MENA – Middle East

and Southeast Asia. This is consistent with the warming observed in the past decade. Below normal temperatures are likely for southern Australia, parts of mainland Southeast Asia and parts of Peru and Ecuador. 3-Month Outlook October to December - Temperature Below Normal Near-Normal Above Normal Very

areas are likely or very likely to experience warmer than normal conditions through the next three months. The main exceptions over parts of Africa and southern Asia, mainly India, owing to likely active monsoon seasons. Much More Likely Below Normal Near-Normal Above Normal Likely Likely Much More