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of wetter than normal conditions across central Asia and drier than normal conditions across parts of southeast Asia; however there is an increased likelihood of wetter than normal conditions across parts of Malaysia and much of Indonesia. Meanwhile, large swathes of Africa are more likely to experience

          South Asia is a varied and complex region that is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Monsoons are a dominant feature of the season here, with the region typically experiencing a pre-monsoon, the Southwest summer monsoon, post-monsoon and the Northeast winter monsoon

and hot, dry weather). The temperate zones are divided into the Mediterranean climates with mild, rainy winters and hot, dry summers, and the temperate rain belts with rain in all seasons. On the eastern margins of the continents, especially in Asia, the subtropical desert zone and the Mediterranean

typically bring an increased likelihood of drier than normal conditions in East Africa and wetter than normal conditions in southern Africa. For the next three months, below normal rainfall is likely across many parts of East Africa with a weakened ‘Short Rains’ season here. Signals are more mixed

this period. The South Asian Monsoon (SAM) is underway with the northward shift of rains close to climatology in terms of timings. Predictions for the SAM remain finely balanced with mixed signals from longer range forecast systems. Overall, wetter than normal conditions are more likely for many

Mediterranean regions of northwest Africa (Morocco, Alegria and Tunisia) and southwest Europe. Across the Caribbean it is likely to be drier than normal in the far north and wetter than normal in the far south. Tropical Cyclone outlook: The North Atlantic Hurricane season has now ended, though further storms

changes, and vary geographically. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are unlikely to become significantly wetter on average, but there is medium confidence for wetter winter and spring months in higher elevation Central Asia (eastern Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, northern Afghanistan

variability, models are in fairly good agreement in predicting a slight increase in the likelihood of wetter than normal conditions across central Asia and drier than normal conditions across parts of southeast Asia; however there is an increased likelihood of wetter than normal conditions across parts

wetter than normal conditions in parts of Australia and Asia, and drier than normal conditions in East Africa. Much More Likely Below Normal Near-Normal Above Normal Likely Likely Much More Likely Climate Outlook Global: July to April Overview 6 Current Status Current Status maps MENA – Middle East

at three regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the Co- Ordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) South Asia initiative and conclude that precipitation in the wet season will decrease within a range of 0 to -16%, with an associated reduction in hydropower electricity production of up