laptop with a globe on screen and science data on screens in the background

UKNCSP Webinar: ‘Beyond UKCP18 – A Community Call for Evidence’

A summary of the webinar discussion on 19 July 2024

Summary

Introduction to UKNCSP 

Prof Michael Meredith opened the webinar by providing a brief overview of the UK National Climate Science Partnership (UKNCSP). The partnership is a national initiative aimed at leveraging the climate science capabilities of various UK research institutes and the Met Office. The primary goal of UKNCSP is to enhance climate science and ensure that evidence generated from climate research is effectively communicated to policymakers and stakeholders​. 

UKCP18 – Where are we now? 

Prof Jason Lowe discussed the current state of the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18). He highlighted the widespread use of UKCP18 data in national adaptation planning and other climate-related projects. Jason emphasised the importance of these projections in understanding and preparing for future climate scenarios. He also noted ongoing work in the Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) cycle, which integrates UKCP18 data to assess various climate risks​. 

What have we learned about users? 

Dr Fai Fung presented insights from user feedback and surveys, revealing how different sectors utilise UKCP18 data. Key findings included the use of climate data for risk assessments and impact studies, with significant engagement from the scientific and technical advisory services sector. Fai highlighted the evolving needs of users, including demands for a wider range of emission scenarios and better communication of uncertainties​. 

Beyond UKCP – Next steps 

Dr Carol McSweeney outlined the future directions beyond UKCP18, focusing on the work currently underway to establish whether there is a need from either a user or science perspective for a major update. She discussed the need for continuous engagement with the user community and the importance of incorporating the latest scientific advancements into future climate projections. Carol stressed the value of decision-relevant science and the need to adapt climate projections to meet evolving user requirements​. 

Towards triggers – what decision-relevant science advances have we seen? 

Four lightning talks illustrate some examples. 

James Murphy on projection information 

James discussed advancements in understanding and representing uncertainty in climate projection information, highlighting both the need and opportunity to produce more consistent projections products in a future update to UKCP. 

Dr Ségolène Berthou on REP MHWs and feed backs on land 

Segolene highlighted recent research on regional environmental prediction (REP) and marine heatwaves (MHWs). She explained how these studies improve our understanding of climate feedback mechanisms and their impact on terrestrial environments. 

Prof Len Shaffrey on large ensembles 

Len presented findings from studies on large climate model ensembles. These studies provide valuable insights into the range of possible climate futures and help in understanding the probabilities of extreme weather events. 

Dr Gillian Kay on UNSEEN 

Gillian introduced the UNSEEN (Unprecedented Simulated Extremes using Ensembles) method, which focuses on analysing present-day climate variability and Extremes. Gillian discussed recent examples of the application of UNSEEN to help understand risks and resilience to wind drought, flooding and summer temperature extremes.   

Call for Evidence – recap on process 

Dr Carol McSweeney provided a recap of the Call for Evidence process, emphasising its role in gathering input from the wider community to inform future updates to climate projections. She highlighted the importance of incorporating diverse perspectives and ensuring that the process is transparent and inclusive​​ and encouraged participants to engage with the Call for Evidence. 

Questions on the process and closing remarks 

The webinar concluded with a Q&A session, where Prof Catherine Senior addressed questions about the Call for Evidence process. Prof Michael Meredith closed the session by encouraging ongoing engagement with the UKNCSP initiative. He reiterated the partnership's commitment to advancing climate science and supporting evidence-based decision-making​​. 

Webinar resources 

Please keep up this conversation  

You can get in touch with us as follows: