UKCP science reports

Science overview

This document shows the highlights from each of the components of UKCP18. This includes observations, projections over land and marine projections.

• UKCP18 science overview (PDF - 20MB) - note the Probabilistic Projections were updated in August 2022, and there may be some small changes to the figures within this document.  Please refer to the project news webpage update on 4 August 2022 for the latest documentation.

Science reports

Our science reports provide headline messages, descriptions of the methods used, an evaluation of the underlying models and future projections.

• Comparison between climate change projections from the UKCP land scenarios and CMIP6 models (PDF - 4MB)  (Published July 2023)
• UKCP18: UKCP Local (2.2km) Transient Projections [Published March 2023]
• UKCP18-Probabilistic-Update-Report.pdf (metoffice.gov.uk) [Published July 2022] 
• UKCP-Probabilistic-Projections-AdditionalMaps [Published July 2022]
• State of the UK climate report [Updated annually by September]
• UKCP18 marine report (PDF - 5MB)
• UKCP18 Land Projections: Science report (PDF - 59MB) - note the Probabilistic Projections were updated in August 2022 and there may be some small changes to the figures within this document.  Please refer to the project news webpage update on 4 August 2022 for the latest documentation.
• UKCP Local Update Report (PDF - 26MB) [Published July 2021] - this replaces UKCP Local (convection-permitting model projections: Science report) (PDF - 45MB). 
• UKCP18 Derived projections of future climate over the UK (PDF - 11MB)
• UK Climate Projections: UKCP Probabilistic Projections of Climate Extremes (PDF - 3.5MB) [Published October 2020]
• UK Climate Projections: Assessment of Drifts and Internal Variability in UKCP Projections (PDF - 2.7MB) [Published October 2020]