We take a look at the influence of climate change on wildfire risk in light of the ongoing situation in Los Angeles.
Climate change has driven a 16-62% rise in burnt area across western North America, with devastating consequences for regions like Los Angeles and beyond.
Devastating wildfires have swept across Los Angeles and surrounding areas, leaving communities grappling with the aftermath of destruction. Scientists highlight clear evidence for climate change exacerbating wildfire conditions, and project even greater impacts in future, especially if rapid action is not taken to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C.
The science behind the flames
While this specific event is still unfolding and has yet to be studied scientifically, recent research published in Nature Climate Change provided clear evidence that climate change has already driven a significant increase in long-term burnt area trends in the area currently being hit, and also worldwide.
The study, co-led by Dr. Chantelle Burton at the Met Office and Seppe Lampe from Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), found that an increase in hot, dry weather relative to the early 20th Century has caused a 16-62% increase in the annual average area burnt in western North America when comparing the recent climate (2003-2019) to a world without human-induced climate change.
Seppe Lampe commented: “Our study shows that climate change has already led to a substantial increase in the area burnt by fires in western North America. This 16-62% rise highlights the growing impact of warming temperatures and shifting weather patterns on fire-prone regions. These findings are a stark reminder of the urgent need to address climate change to limit future fire risks.”
Dr. Chantelle Burton has also previously highlighted the connection between climate change and the behaviour of wildfires: “The contribution of climate change to high fire weather conditions means that when fires do ignite, they have the potential to be larger, more intense, and harder to manage.”
This connection looks to be playing out in real time in Los Angeles, where extreme heat, prolonged drought, and gusty winds have created conditions that make fires incredibly difficult to control. Firefighters in the region are battling not just the flames but also the challenging environment, with dry vegetation acting as fuel and winds spreading embers rapidly across large areas.
The growing threat of extreme fires
The increase in fire risk is not confined to the present. UNEP’s 2022 ‘Spreading Like Wildfire’ Report paints a stark picture of the future. Without significant global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the number of extreme wildfire events in some parts of western North America could triple by the end of the century. Even with strong climate action, the number of extreme events is likely to increase due to emissions and warming already locked into the system.
Dr. Douglas Kelley from the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and lead data analysis on the UNEP report emphasised: “Our projections show that, globally, extreme wildfire events could increase by up to 14% by 2030, 30% by 2050, and 50% by the end of the century if emissions are not dramatically reduced. The projected increases in extreme fires highlight the critical need to cut our emissions to limit global warming, but also prepare for more frequent scenes like we are seeing around LA right now.”
Prof. Richard Betts of the Met Office added: “The failure of the international community to cut global emissions means that we must now live with unavoidable changes. Many people around the world are now going to have to live with more fire as part of their everyday lives.”
With much climate research looking at the future likelihood of fire conditions which can exacerbate the spread and impact of wildfires, it’s important to note that sources of ignition of wildfires is a separate factor, as is the planning and management of fires when they do occur.
The urgent need for action
As communities across Los Angeles and elsewhere in the world continue to contend with the devastation caused by wildfires, this research shows the need for immediate adaptation measures and long-term efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
“The current crisis is a harsh reminder that every fraction of a degree matters in preventing future wildfire catastrophes,” added Dr Burton.
Further information
Burton, Lampe et al. 2024. Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change. Nature Climate Change. DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w
Jones, Kelley, Burton, Di Giuseppe et al. 2024. State of Wildfires. Earth Syst. Sci. Data. DOI: 10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024
Burton et al. 2024. Fire weakens land carbon sinks before 1.5℃. Nature Geoscience. DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01554-7
UNEP et al. Spreading like Wildfire: The Rising Threat of Extraordinary Landscape Fires. A UNEP Rapid Response Assessment. Nairobi. https://www.unep.org/resources/report/spreading-wildfire-rising-threat-extraordinary-landscape-fires
The Met Office, in conjunction with UKCEH, Uni of East Anglia and ECMWF, coordinates the annual State of Wildfires report. The next release - end of July/early August, will provide up-to-date information on the causes of wildfires from the previous 12 months, including LA and how climate change and human activity were involved. For more info, see: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2024/climate-change-raised-the-odds-of-unprecedented-wildfires-in-2023-24