Recent weather in the UK has certainly been variable. January has seen a period of low temperatures, freezing rain, sleet and snow, as well as mild and dry spells and most notably the destruction from Storm Éowyn. With so much variability in our weather, what can we say about what is to come over the next few months?
Despite what some online headlines suggest, the physics of the atmosphere simply does not allow forecasters to predict specific details such as the amount of rain or snow months in advance. However, the Met Office produces a Three-Month Outlook that provides information on how the the likelihood of different possible conditions differs from usual for the UK overall.
Our weather is influenced by meteorological factors around the world, so to understand what we might expect here, the Three-Month Outlook examines weather phenomena outside the UK.
Understanding the drivers behind weather in the UK
There are several interconnected global weather and climate systems, known as global drivers, that have the potential to influence the weather we see here in the UK in the next three months.
- The jet stream, a core of strong winds blowing from west to east 6-10 km above the Earth’s surface, helps develop low-pressure systems and drive them towards the UK.
- A moderate La Niña event in the Pacific Ocean is increasing the chance of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern which increases the chance of westerly winds in the UK
- A westerly phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, which also increases the likelihood of westerly winds from the Atlantic.
- An active Madden-Julian Oscillation moving across the Indian Ocean (Phases 2/3) in the next few weeks, which increases the chance of a positive phase of the NAO developing.
These, together with other drivers, and the output from other long-range forecast systems from weather services around the globe, indicate that across Northern Europe and the UK, westerly winds are more likely than normal over the coming three months (February, March, April).
Jeff Knight, Science Lead in Modelling Climate Variability at the Met Office, said, “An increase in westerly winds from the Atlantic is usually associated with more low-pressure systems, and in winter these bring wet, windy and mild conditions to the UK. The increased chances of westerly winds in the Outlook therefore implies a greater risk of stormy spells. However, it is important to note that we do not interpret the Outlook as meaning stormy weather will prevail over the whole of the three months it covers. Spells of dry, calm or cold weather are also possible at times as with any winter or spring period in the UK.
“An Outlook for increased storminess, however, carries a risk of storm clustering, meaning multiple storms could affect the UK in quick succession, like we have already seen for storms Éowyn and Herminia. Although the Outlook can’t give any indication of the severity of specific events and therefore if any particular system will be named, the chance of impacts from wet and windy weather, particularly during February and March, are higher than to normal.”
The Met Office Three-Month Outlooks are designed for the use of contingency planners who work to mitigate the potential impacts of critical situations within our communities. The science of longer-range and seasonal outlooks is at the cutting edge of meteorology and the Met Office is one of the leaders in scientific research in the area. Even with ‘perfect’ prediction systems, the fundamentally chaotic nature of the atmosphere means these predictions will always be concerned with the likelihood of different kinds of possible weather conditions and the levels of risk of impacts they might bring.
You can check the long range forecast and daily weather forecast on our website. You can also follow us on Twitter and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store. Our three-month outlooks are updated each month. Keep track of current weather warnings on the weather warning page.