As the climate we live in changes, there is an ever-growing need for climate information to aid resilience, adaptation, and mitigation planning both in the UK and globally.
Established in 1990, the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services is one of the world’s leading climate science institutions. Pioneering research carried out with global partners has been instrumental in helping the UK and other nations understand and address the challenges posed by climate change.
The Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme stands at the forefront of global climate research, providing crucial research which informs both national and international climate policies. This blog explores the pivotal role of the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme in providing climate evidence to numerous UK Government departments as well as its broader benefits to society.
The Role of the Climate Programme across Government Departments
The Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme contributes to underpinning climate science research in the UK, meeting UK Government evidence needs and supporting the UK and global climate community to understand and respond to climate challenges.
Funded by the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology and managed by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs and the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, the Climate Programme delivers immediate impact and value by developing core climate science capability (through modelling, data and infrastructure) and by delivering scientific knowledge and expertise.
Supporting resilience, adaptation and mitigation planning
The UK Climate Projections (UKCP) are a set of tools and data showing how the UK climate is changing and may change in the future. They are particularly significant for downstream users of climate information in Government and industry to aid resilience and adaptation.
In July 2023, Defra launched the Third National Adaptation Programme (NAP3) which sets out a 5-year programme of action to build the UK’s resilience to climate change. It is part of the statutory process set out under the Climate Change Act, 2008 and includes existing, strengthened, and new commitments to respond to the 61 risks and opportunities identified in the UK’s Third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3).
Science evidence both provided by and underpinned by the Climate Programme played a vital role in informing CCRA3 and the adaptation actions set out in NAP3. The UKCP projections were a key source of information for both the third CCRA and NAP3. They underpin much of the adaptation work taking place in the UK and provide evidence on climate hazards we could experience at 2°C and 4°C of warming.
Energy security and resilience
The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) plays a critical role in the UK’s response to climate change, with a focus on transitioning to sustainable energy and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme, contributes to the scientific foundation needed to support these objectives. By delivering high-quality climate science and modeling, essential for developing robust policies, DESNZ ensures energy security while advancing the UK’s sustainability goals.
In a recent blog we shared how we are supporting the energy sector better understand the energy needs for the 2030’s and beyond. Working with Ofgem, DESNZ, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) and the electricity system operator (ESO), our aim is to make data sets and guidance available for use by the entire energy sector. This initiative seeks to provide consistency, reduce duplication, and lower costs across various projects and research efforts exploring future energy models and needs.
Energy security is a key priority for Government. Winter weather in the UK and its associated impacts are strongly correlated to the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region. The Met Office seasonal forecasting system, underpinned by the Climate Programme can skilfully predict this large-scale circulation in winter, which enables skilful seasonal climate forecasts for the energy sector. This supports UK energy resilience by of high-risk periods for energy demand and supply, for example in winter cold snaps and wind droughts.
Through its cutting-edge research, the Climate Programme informs DESNZ strategies on energy resilience, adaptation to climate impacts, and the development of low-carbon technologies. This collaboration ensures that the UK’s energy policies are grounded in the latest scientific evidence, making them more effective in mitigating the impacts of climate change.
UK Food Security and Ecosystem Risks
The Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (Defra) work on safeguarding the UK’s environment, agriculture, and food security is heavily supported by the climate research conducted under the Climate Programme. As the UK faces increasing risks from extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts, the need for accurate climate projections has never been greater. The Climate Programme provides these projections, enabling Defra to develop strategies that protect vital ecosystems and ensure the resilience of the UK’s food supply.
One of the key contributions of the Climate Programme to Defra is through the Defra-funded Climate Services, which focus on the impacts of climate change on farming and the broader food system. These services inform policymakers about necessary adaptations, such as improving water management in agriculture or enhancing the resilience of food supply chains. By integrating our research into its policies, Defra can better prepare for the challenges that a changing climate presents to the UK’s natural environment and food production systems.
Global climate negotiations
On the international stage, research and evidence carried out as part of the Climate Programme directly informs applied science and services funded by the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) & other Government Departments to support global action on adaptation and resilience particularly in, but not exclusively, in developing countries. Research supports the UK’s contributions to global climate negotiations and international climate agreements, as well as contributing to the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Met Office Hadley Centre scientists provided authorship and review support to IPCC Sixth Assessment Report – a crucial document used for informing global climate policies and the setting of targets for emissions reductions.
Met Office contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Reports (IPCC AR6) Working Group reports (WGI, WGII and WGIII) .
More about our work with the IPCC
International climate resilience
Building on the Climate Programme’s international leadership in climate science and its applications to policy and decision-making, FCDO Programming can undertake global engagement and positioning of the UK as a force for good working towards addressing the current global climate challenge helping build resilience. This aligns with the FCDO’s diplomatic objectives and mission to support global development and growth whilst alleviating poverty, particularly in regions that are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change.
The ever-growing urgency to act ahead of high-impact weather and climate events to effectively build long-term climate resilience requires sustained commitments and partnerships worldwide, and needs-driven, action-focused research.
The UK has long-standing Programming focused on the adaptation and resilience agenda. As an example of active Programming that draws on the Climate Programme, the Weather and Climate Information Services Programme (WISER) focusses on increased quality, accessibility and use of information for action and resilience building in Africa, Asia-Pacific, and MENA regions. Another example is the CLimate Adaptation and Resilience programme (CLARE), the UK’s £110m+ flagship research programme on climate adaptation and resilience, announced at COP26. CLARE is bridging critical gaps between science and action by championing Southern leadership of research. It supports partner governments, communities, and the private sector to use evidence and innovation to drive effective solutions to the climate challenge, whilst building capacity of both those carrying out the research and those using the resulting evidence. CLARE is mostly (about 90%) funded by FCDO, and co-funded and run by Canada’s International Development Research Centre. You can read more about the work of this programme in our recent blog.
Due to the world-leading status of the Climate Programme, FCDO are able to reinforce the UK’s position as a leading both mitigation and adaptation policy, diplomacy and climate action. The Climate Programme, in turn, benefits from the insights on how the evidence is used in decision making by the Government Departments involved to ensure that the UK remains a leader and relevant in international climate science.
Key Activities and Achievements 2021-2024
Each Climate Programme builds on the success of previous programmes, with research carried out in collaboration with leading research institutions and universities, both in the UK and internationally.
The 2021-24 Climate Programme was designed around four key questions posed by the UK Government:
- Current weather and climate hazards, risks and impacts that should be expected in the UK and globally
Extreme weather events have severe impacts on society and ecosystems in our current climate, and pose an increasing threat as climate changes. Met Office Hadley Centre scientists have pioneered work in attribution science, which looks at whether climate change is responsible for extreme weather events, and to what extent.
Multiple attribution studies were carried out during the 2021-24 MOHCCP, investigating some of the most impactful weather events in that period including an attribution study of the UK’s record-breaking annual temperature in 2022, where human-induced climate change made this event around 160 times more likely.
In December 2023, the Met Office annual global temperature forecast was published. Global average temperature rise is measured as the difference between 1850-1900: a proxy for the Industrial Revolution. It suggested that 2024 is very likely to be between 1.34°C and 1.58°C (with a central estimate of 1.46°C) above the average for the pre-industrial period (1850-1900).
This was the first time that a year has been forecast with a substantial chance of exceeding 1.5°C above the average for the pre-industrial period. The Met Office’s Dr Nick Dunstone, who led the forecast, stated that: “It’s important to recognise that a temporary exceedance of 1.5 °C won’t mean a breach of the Paris Agreement. But the first year above 1.5 °C would certainly be a milestone in climate history.”
- Future hazards, risks and impacts from weather and climate that we may wish to avoid or need to adapt to
Met Office scientists Neil Kaye and Deborah Hemming have been working in collaboration with biosecurity and forestry experts at Defra, Forest Research, Fera Science and the University of Warwick to provide scientifically robust and useful research, tools and guidance to help manage the climate-related risks to UK plants, particularly trees and forests, from plant pests and pathogens.
The UK Climate-Pest Risk Web Tool integrates ecological knowledge and models of known temperature thresholds for different pests/pathogens, with up-to-date climate observation datasets from the Met Office National Climate Information Centre. It is used to estimate the timings and locations of pest outbreaks across the UK, and inform actions to support assessment and management of pest and pathogen risks to UK plants now and in the future. More about this tool can be found in our blog.
- Carbon budget and mitigation scenarios will avoid the most dangerous impacts of global climate change
Prof Richard Betts, led a comment paper, published in Nature in December 2023, which discussed the need for a clear definition of current warming levels in the context of the Paris Climate Agreement to avoid confusion over whether a particular level of warming (e.g. 1.5°C) has been reached. This paper proposes a method to produce an indicator of current warming levels, which (incorporating observations and RCP4.5 projections) is around 1.25°C for 2022.
To complement the newly proposed indicators, a new section was added to the Global Climate Dashboard to illustrate the current level of global warming. Led by Met Office Scientist Matt Palmer, the ‘Indicators of Global Warming’ dashboard displays eight separate indicators as well as observed global mean temperature using Met Office HadCRUT5 data, providing real time insights on the status of our efforts to keep warming below 1.5° C. You can here more about the dashboard in an episode of Climate Podcast.
- The impacts and opportunities from mitigation and adaptation actions as we proceed towards a resilient and net zero future
At the UN’s Climate Conference COP27, the University of Leeds, in partnership with the Met Office, launched an online tool, which help communicate the co-benefits of climate action.
The Climate Co-Benefits Portal provides an assessment of the available scientific data on how climate interventions affect five impact categories; economy, ecosystems, energy, health and socio-cultural.
The portal assists in understanding the evidence on climate action co-benefits and trade-offs and can help identify where there is strong evidence to support policy development and decision making. The portal can be used to find out how climate mitigation and adaptation interventions influence other policy areas. More information was shared in our press release.
Future Directions and Challenges
Insights from our research is critical for planning and building climate-resilient infrastructure, essential for maintaining public safety and economic stability of key industries, such as agriculture, insurance, and energy, by providing the data needed to manage climate risks effectively. This not only protects jobs and livelihoods but also ensures that the UK can continue to thrive in a changing climate.
The Climate Programme continues its vital work through the 2024-2027 workplan, with a focus on addressing emerging climate risks and supporting the UK’s net-zero transition. This is a crucial time for our planet as we try and slow global annual temperature increases as we get closer to the 1.5C Paris goal.
The new work plan was co-developed with UK Government and the Climate Programme’s independent science review group. Science produced during this programme will underpin the climate research and data needs of the 4th Climate Change Risk Assessment and the UK contribution to the 7th IPCC assessment. Work has already begun supporting an IPCC special report on climate change and cities and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 7.
The Met Office Hadley Centre will continue to work with partners to deliver scientific knowledge, expertise and capacity to meet the needs of the UK Government and support the UK and global climate science communities to build a more resilient and sustainable future for all. And as the impacts of climate change become increasingly apparent, the importance of our climate research will only continue to grow.