Storm Bert brought significant impacts to parts of south Wales and across the UK, with many affected in what was an impactful multi-hazard storm.
Naturally, our thoughts are with those who are currently affected with the impacts caused by Storm Bert, and we will continue working with responders as needed around the ongoing weather forecast, with the potential for further winds and rain late on Tuesday and into Wednesday.
The level of disruption has led to criticism of the weather forecast in some circles. At the Met Office our purpose is to help keep people and their property safe and we always strive to achieve this. We worked with partners over 3 days ahead of the storm and rainfall levels were within the expected range of that forecast. Warnings in place highlighted the potential for homes and businesses to flood with fast flowing or deep floodwater possible, causing a danger to life.
Observed rainfall totals were broadly in line with the forecast and the severe weather warnings issued in advance. Provisional statistics show White Barrow in Devon saw the highest rainfall accumulation, with 175.7mm between midnight on 23 November and midnight 25 November. Treherbert, Tyn-Y-Waun in South Wales recorded 171.6mm at a Natural Resources Wales (NRW) rain gauge over the same period. Strong winds were also recorded with 82mph recorded at Capel Curig in Gwynedd.
Met Office staff have been working 24/7 to provide forecasts, warnings and information for the public, emergency responders and local and national government. Just under 50 National Severe Weather Warnings were issued over the course of last week, including those related to Storm Bert. These were communicated widely, both publicly and in briefings, to help inform decision making and responses.
I am proud to lead a team of dedicated professionals, and I thank them and our partners and the responder community for the dedication shown in preparing and responding to Storm Bert. I recognise many of those in communities are volunteers and they are making the difference as the communities impacted now start to recover from the impacts seen.
Many factors play into our warning strategy, including how flood models influence the assessed flood risk, which is why we work with devolved agencies when appropriate, including Natural Resources Wales, to understand river responses to forecast rainfall and in part determine the level of warning.
I’m committed to learning the lessons from Storm Bert to support even greater preparedness and we will be reviewing our warning strategy and how this linked to flood models in the coming weeks and days. Today my team and I have been working with stakeholder, partners and customers to start to review Storm Bert.
You can monitor ongoing flood risk in Wales via the Natural Resources Wales website, in England via the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency in Scotland and the Department for Infrastructure in Northern Ireland.
Tragically, high intensity rainfall events like those seen with Storm Bert are becoming more common as our atmosphere warms due to human-induced climate change. A recent attribution study has shown that climate change has made rainfall during storms more intense through the autumn and winter. This trend is expected to increase further in a warming climate.
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