Monday and Tuesday will see further settled, yet grey, weather across the UK with cloud covering much of the country, outbreaks of rain over some northern parts of England and Wales and showers over northern Scotland.

On Wednesday the focus of rain will shift to southern England where rain will affect some areas.

A major change in our weather starts on Thursday, as a front bringing heavy rain moves eastwards through the day. North Wales and Northwest England are expected to see the highest accumulations where 20-30mm could fall over the hills, some hill snow is possible over the Scottish mountains.

Low pressure to bring wet and windy weather

By Thursday a deep area of low pressure will have deepened rapidly whilst crossing the Atlantic. This will bring strengthening winds to western parts of the UK overnight followed by heavy rainfall. On Friday the strongest gusts are expected to be across Northern Ireland and western Scotland, where there could be gusts of up to 80mph, possibly higher, along coastlines and high ground. A Yellow Severe Weather Warning has been issued for Friday through until Saturday morning.

Met Office Deputy Chief Meteorologist, Chris Almond, said: “A very deep area of low pressure will bring a very unsettled, potentially disruptive, spell of weather to the UK through Friday and into Saturday. Winds will begin to strengthen on Thursday night with the peak gusts forecast through Friday in Northern Ireland and western Scotland. The wind will also be accompanied by heavy rain bringing some unpleasant conditions to end the week.

“We have issued a Yellow weather warning for wind, and with several days before the impactful weather, the forecast details are likely to be fine-tuned during the week, so stay tuned to your local forecast and keep up to date with Met Office warnings.”

The change in conditions is being driven by the weather over the other side of the Atlantic. A large, very cold pool of air over parts of North America is generating a stark contrast in temperatures across the continent, acting to strengthen the jet stream resulting in deeper low pressure systems being able to develop, this jet oriented such that these lows will then be steered across the Atlantic towards the UK.

Chris continued: “As the low develops over the Atlantic and interacts with the jet stream it will rapidly strengthen, a phenomenon called ‘explosive cyclogenesis’, where the central pressure of a low at latitudes in which the UK lies drops 24 millibars or more in 24 hours. This is forecast to happen on Thursday while the system is out over the Atlantic and it will be a mature feature by the time it reaches the UK.”

Further ahead

As the area of low pressure weakens and continues its north easterly track to the north of the UK, Saturday will remain a breezy day everywhere with strong winds persisting in the far North. It will be drier with showers replacing persistent heavy rain.

By Sunday another area of low pressure could bring further wet and very windy weather across the UK.

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