High pressure is the dominant force for the UK’s weather at present, with warmth for many in the south and plenty of sunshine. 

Met Office Chief Meteorologist Paul Gundersen said: “The warm or even hot weather is continuing for many, with some places in England and Wales likely to meet heatwave criteria in the coming days.  

“Temperatures are likely to peak at around 32C in southeast England on Tuesday and Wednesday, with much of the UK experiencing dry, fine and warm conditions in the first half of the week. There is a chance of some thundery outbreaks for some in the south and east from later on Wednesday, which will be the first signs of the UK’s transition to a more unsettled regime, with warnings issued to highlight potential impacts.” 

The UK Health Security Agency, which looks specifically at potential impacts on the health and social care sector, has issued a Yellow Heat Health Alert for parts of England. 

UV levels are likely to be high for many in the coming days. Find advice on steps you can take to manage UV and its effect on health. Further advice from expert organisations on making the most of summer weather is also available as part of WeatherReady.  

What is a heatwave?

An official heatwave has occurred when a specific temperature threshold is met or exceeded for three consecutive days. The threshold varies by UK county, as shown in the UK temperature threshold map below.

Thundery breakdown to come

While warmth will remain for many on Wednesday, there’s a chance of some thundery showers developing in southern areas for a time, before a more widely unsettled day on Thursday with some potentially impactful thunderstorms in places.  

Met Office warnings for thunderstorms have been issued for the south and southeast from Wednesday afternoon, as well as much of England and Wales on Thursday.  

The warnings highlight potential disruption to travel, as well as the chance of some flooding.  

Met Office Deputy Chief Meteorologist Dan Holley said: “While there is often some uncertainty during thundery breakdowns, we’re monitoring several areas that could see some thunderstorms on Wednesday, but more especially Thursday. There is a small chance in parts of south and southeast England as early as Wednesday, perhaps more likely on Wednesday night, with other areas of heavy and locally thundery rain developing across portions of Wales, the Midlands and northern England later on Wednesday night and into Thursday morning.

“In addition, scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms may break out on Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of central, southern and eastern England, along with perhaps south Wales, which may produce gusty winds, large hail and the risk of surface water flooding. The heaviest downpours could produce in excess of 25mm of rain in less than an hour, with disruption possible in some areas. This is an evolving story, so it’s important to stay up-to-date with the latest forecast during the next couple of days.” 

Thursday’s thundery breakdown heralds a shift to a more unsettled pattern for the UK later in the week and into the weekend, with a westerly weather regime likely to bring outbreaks of rain or showers at times, albeit with some drier and brighter interludes. 

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