Weather and climate change

Headline:

Turning wet and windy from the south, showers elsewhere.

Today:

Sunny spells and showers will continue across northern areas. Further south, after a dry start, it will turn wet and windy from the southwest, with some heavier bursts reaching Devon and Cornwall during the evening. Feeling warm in any sunshine.

Tonight:

Showers across the north will ease with clear spells developing. Cloud and rain across the south spreading northwards, reaching northern England and Northern Ireland by dawn.

Tuesday:

Areas of rain, locally heavy will move northeastwards, skies brightening from the south with heavy showers developing in places. Temperatures near average but feeling warm in the sunshine.

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Remaining unsettled as low pressure tracks northwards Wednesday. Further outbreaks of rain likely Thursday but some warm sunny spells around too. Similar on Friday, perhaps turning drier from the west.

Updated: 05:00 (UTC+1) on Mon 8 Jul 2024

Many areas should start this period mostly dry as a ridge of high pressure dominates the UK. It should feel pleasant enough in mostly light winds and sunshine, with temperatures generally near average, but some rural areas could experience chilly nights. However there is also a chance that rain may fringe into easternmost and southwesternmost areas at times. Then a transition to more generally changeable conditions looks most likely, though with a northwest-southeast split in fortunes. Northwestern areas will probably see more in the way of cloud and rain, whereas southeastern parts stand a better chance of longer periods of drier and at times, somewhat warmer weather. However, some rain may extend further southeast across all parts of the UK from time to time.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 7 Jul 2024

As can often be the case at this time of year, predictability at this range is low. There are some signs of a slightly greater than normal chance of a more prolonged settled spell developing at some point during the period, at least for a time, and perhaps more likely in the south. However, by the same token further, perhaps shorter, unsettled interludes are probable too. Above average temperatures overall, and drier than average conditions overall, are very slightly favoured.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 7 Jul 2024