Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
There is a chance of enhanced geomagnetic activity late in the UTC day of Tuesday 04 March across northern Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes - should a forecast glancing Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) affect Earth at this time.
Southern Hemisphere
There is a chance of enhanced auroral sightings late in the UTC day of Tuesday 04 March across far southern New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes - should a forecast glancing Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) affect Earth at this time.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate flares (Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) throughout. Chance of Minor/Moderate geomagnetic storm (G1/G2) late Day 1 into Day 2.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Activity is Low, with only occasional common class flare observed.
The facing side of the Sun displays eight sunspot regions, with one region unnumbered. A couple of these have shown some increase in complexity in the past UTC day, albeit to no notable result in flare activity thus far.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were identified in available satellite imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds are easing after previous fast wind enhancement with Slightly Elevated speeds. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak and the north-south component was mainly northward directed. The net result of the above solar wind measures was Quiet geomagnetic activity.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate levels expected, with a Chance of isolated Moderate class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME on 01/1730UTC from the southeast of the Sun may affect Earth as a glancing blow late on day 1 (4 March). This is the only CME in the forecast.
Slightly Elevated winds are expected to continue declining towards Background prior to any CME arrival.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet with a chance of G1 to G2 from any CME arrival.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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