Space Weather

Space Weather

Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a  variety of effects.

Image courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams

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Aurora forecasts

Northern Hemisphere

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be near background levels through this period, with any aurora very limited and confined to higher latitudes.

Southern Hemisphere

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be near background levels through this period, with any aurora very limited and confined to higher latitudes.

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Forecast overview

Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate-class flares (R1/R2 blackout) expected, slight chance of further Strong flares (R3 blackout).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been High with a Strong flare peaking at 28/2056 UTC from the large region in the southwest. This region has also produced 3 M-flares in the last 24 hours. This is by far the largest and most magnetically complex group, but it is becoming more difficult to assess as it approaches the limb. The other three sunspot regions are comparatively small and simple.

The recent Strong flare appeared to produce a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) directed towards the southwest in the latest coronagraph imagery. This is yet to be assessed, but is currently thought unlikely to have a significant Earth directed component. Otherwise, no significant Earth-directed CMEs were observed over the last 24 hours.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind has been mostly at slightly elevated levels as the CME effects from last weekend continue to decline. Wind speeds eased from around 470 km/s to near 400 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was at weak levels. The north-south component fluctuated weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 2-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation slightly elevated above background levels, but was well below the S1/Minor Radiation storm threshold.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Moderate-class flare activity is expected, with a slight chance of further isolated Strong flares, most likely from the large region in the southwest. This risk then declines through Day 3 (31 Mar) as this region rotates away from the limb.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity:  There are currently no significant Earth-directed CMEs forecast to arrive in the next four days. Solar winds have been at slightly elevated levels, but are showing a slow decline towards background levels, which is expected to continue as recent CME effects continue to wane. Connection to a coronal hole fast wind is possible later Day 2 into Day 3 (30-31 Mar), with speeds of around 450-500 km/s most likely. 

Generally Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity is expected through the period, perhaps with a slight chance of Active intervals when the fast wind arrives.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation is now near background levels after the recent enhancement. There is a slight chance of further enhancement due to larger flares, mainly from the region in the southwest.

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Solar imagery

SDO AIA-193

This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.

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SDO AIA-304

This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.

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