Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Background aurora conditions most likely. Slight chance through the period of some occasional minor enhancements due to faster solar winds. Should this occur, then aurora may become visible across the far north of the UK and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
Background aurora conditions most likely. Slight chance through the period of some occasional minor enhancements due to faster solar winds. Should this occur, then aurora may become visible across the extreme south of Tasmania and the South Island of New Zealand where skies are clear.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate Solar Activity
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate with two Moderate-class flares, one from each of the regions near the southeast limb. These are the most complex regions on the disc, with the southernmost one potentially having a complex mixed magnetic polarity structure although this is impossible to confirm due to its viewing angle. The other regions on the disc are all smaller and simpler.
No Earth-directed CMEs (coronal mass ejections) were observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Slow wind persisted through the period. Solar winds speeds were background to slightly elevated. Interplanetary Magnetic Field, was Weak to Moderate. The north-south component was also Weak to Moderate and variable in direction. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) became enhanced on 21 Nov, and briefly peaked at S2 Moderate Solar Radiation Storm early on 22 Nov. These then eased through the day, easing below the S1 Minor Radiation Storm level by 22/2035 UTC, and then to background by the end of the period.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected, with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares and a slight chance of Strong-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs. Slow wind conditions are expected to dominate, but with a chance of spells of slightly elevated solar winds if Earth encounters the fast winds from a couple of small coronal holes. This is most likely to occur on day 2 (24 Nov). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled overall, but with a chance for spells of Active, mainly day 2 (24 Nov).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to remain at background.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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