Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval may be slightly enhanced at times through this period, but with aurora mostly confined to higher latitudes. There is just a slight chance of visible aurora reaching northern Scotland and similar latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval may be slightly enhanced at times through this period, but with aurora mostly confined to higher latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: A chance of further Moderate-class flares and slight chance of Strong flares through the period.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity returned to Moderate levels following renewed Moderate flare activity, peaking at 29/0111 UTC from the large region in the western disk. This region also produced several other upper common class flares during the period. There remain seven sunspot regions on the visible disc, six of which are currently numbered. The large region in the western disc continues to dominate the flare risk. This region continues to show further development in its intermediate portion in recent hours. Remaining sunspot regions are all relatively small and simple. A new spot region continues to emerge at the northeast limb and was numbered with another small region emerging in the northeast. Two small regions ceased to be visible as they moved towards the western limb.
No clearly Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery although analysis ongoing for several faint events.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds have been variable within slightly elevated levels but on an overall mostly steady trend. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak, with the important north-south component also weakly variable. Geomagnetic activity was mainly Quiet (Kp 0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation was at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: There is a chance of Moderate-class flares and a slight chance of Strong flares maintained though the period, this mainly from the largest and most magnetically complex sunspot group, which is currently in the west of the visible disc.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A coronal mass ejection (CME) which originated late on 26 Apr in the southeast of the disc, could give a glancing blow early on day 2 (30 Apr).
Solar winds will likely continue at slightly elevated levels over the next couple of days, with further weak coronal hole influences possible. Later on day 3 into day 4 (1-2 May) a more definite coronal hole connection and faster stream of solar wind may arrive.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be largely Quiet at first, but with Unsettled periods likely on days 3-4 (1-2 May) as a faster stream of solar wind perhaps arrives. There is also a slight chance of isolated Active to G1/Minor Storm intervals on day 2 (30 Apr), should the possible glancing CME mentioned above materialise.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation is most likely to remain at background levels through this period. There is a slight chance for an S1 or greater event, with the large, complex sunspot in the western quadrant posing the main risk as it continues to rotate westwards.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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