Space Weather Forecast Headline: Occasional Moderate flares expected with chance of isolated Strong flares. Chance of Minor geomagnetic storm intervals due to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity is High. A large and complex sunspot region in the northwest has continued to produce numerous moderate flares in the last 24 hours. A second, now larger region in the south-centre disc is less active, but has rapidly developed with a complex magnetic configuration. These two groups are part of nine sunspot regions on the visible disc. The remaining sunspots on the disc are smaller, stable and magnetically simple. 

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) appears to have occurred, starting around 07/0000 UTC from a region close to the sunspot group in the south-centre disc. Analysis is ongoing to determine if there is an Earth-directed component to it. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were predominantly at slightly elevated to elevated levels resulting from the connection one or more coronal holes. Speeds peaked briefly at strong levels (602km/s at 07/0150 UTC). The Interplanetary Magnetic Field remained mainly at moderate levels initially before declining to weak levels around 06/1730 UTC. The important north-south component was very variable but declined from moderate levels to become weak. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 1-4).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation was at normal background levels.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Moderate to High solar activity is forecast to continue with occasional Moderate flares expected and a chance of isolated Strong flares, principally from the large sunspot regions located in the northwest and south-centre parts of the visible disc.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are multiple potential Earth-directed CMEs in the forecast period, although confidence is low due to a lack of solar imagery in recent days. Of these, the majority, if not all are expected to pass above or below Earth orbit, most likely limiting any impacts to glancing blows. Earth is under the influence of a HSS (High speed stream) from a couple of coronal holes and expected to peak at elevated levels on Day 1 (07 May) before slowly declining between Days 2-4 (08-10 May) towards slightly elevated or background levels.

Geomagnetic activity should generally fall between Quiet to Active levels through the period, but with a chance of Minor Storm (Kp5) intervals on all days, given the potential for peripheral CME enhancements.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation levels is most likely to remain at background levels through the period. There is a slight chance for an S1/Minor Storm or greater event occurring throughout however, primarily from the large, complex sunspot region in the northwest disc.