Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Friday 7 Jun - Sunday 16 Jun
The first part of the period most likely characterised by showers sometimes blustery, occasionally heavy with thunderstorms, sometimes forming larger bands of rain. Showers most often across north-western areas but all areas likely to see some, generally becoming lighter in the south with increasing brighter spells. Temperatures rather cool for most. Into the new week the outlook becomes uncertain though most likely an increased potential for periods of rain breaking into showers, sometimes heavy and thundery to spread from the west with fresh or strong winds at times. Rainfall likely slightly above average for most, though driest conditions most likely in the northeast. Temperatures mainly around normal, feeling cool in the northwest with best chance of warmer temperatures in the southeast.
Monday 17 Jun - Monday 1 Jul
There is a slight shift of the most favoured regime from more unsettled to settled conditions through this period, though by relatively small margins, this linked to a slight trend towards drier and warmer conditions especially in the south as the period progresses. On balance, it is probable that a continuation of variable, slow moving weather patterns are likely through much of June, with high pressure becoming more dominant from the west late on. Temperatures are most likely to be around or above normal.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).