Research to Operations: Global Numerical Weather Prediction
The Global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) group develop, deliver and coordinate upgrades to the Met Office’s operational global NWP system
The deterministic Global Model and the Global component of the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-G) produce highly performant forecasts that underpin many other components of the operational forecast suite. To maintain their performance relies on a good understanding of the main components of the system and a sound process to pull through scientific advances into operations in an expedient and coordinated way.
Key aims
- To enhance the 4D-hybrid-Var data assimilation scheme and to exploit new and existing observations to improve both global analyses and forecasts
- To develop our numerical modelling capability with a focus on physically realistic forecasts of near-surface quantities
- Maintaining state-of-the-art ensemble prediction techniques, including the treatment of model uncertainty through stochastic parametrization schemes such that ensemble spread aims to match forecast error at all forecast lead-times
- Using evaluation and verification tools to properly diagnose and measure forecast performance such that changes to the NWP system can be suitably tested before implementation
- Diagnosing and tracking causes of forecast error with the aim to improve future NWP forecasts by prioritising specific activities during the model development cycle
Current activities
- Major upgrade to the global ensemble formulation and global model physics in 2019
- Working with the Coupled DA team to help implement a coupled ocean/atmosphere global model with weakly coupled data assimilation planned for 2021
- Developing and maintaining scientific software to support R2O activities