Tropical cyclone forecast error charts
For those not familiar with the types of error statistics used
in tropical cyclone forecast assessment and their sign conventions
a diagrammatic
explanation is available.
North Atlantic Ocean
Several meteorological centres who monitor tropical cyclones have developed models that forecast the tracks of tropical cyclones up to 3 days ahead using methods based on past climatology in the area and persistence. These are known as CLIPER models and are generally accepted as a benchmark against which numerical weather prediction models can be assesed.
- Forecast skill is defined as: (CLIPER DPE - Model DPE)/CLIPER DPE x 100%
- Positive skill indicates the model forecast is better than CLIPER.
- Negative skill indicates the CLIPER forecast is better than the model.
Direct Positional Errors
Forecast Skill against CLIPER
