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Changing climate, changing gardens

Watering can The impact of climate change on gardening is likely to have far-reaching effects on the average domestic garden, and also the many historic gardens around the UK.

Already we are seeing an increase in the occurrence of severe weather events, such as floods, heatwaves and droughts.

In the future this will have huge ramifications for gardeners everywhere, and could change the landscape of the UK beyond all recognition.

See how your region might be affected

The Met Office and Royal Horticultural Society – working together

The Met Office has teamed up with the Royal Horticultural Society to highlight the impacts that climate change will have on the world of horticulture.

As part of the project we attended the Hampton Court Flower Show. Climate change scientists, including Dr Vicky Pope, Head of Climate Prediction, gave daily seminars on climate science and the impacts of climate change.

Why not have a go at our fun Bug Blaster game.

Gardens scoping study

In 2002 the Met Office contributed to research, commissioned by the Royal Horticultural Society, UKCIP, National Trust and English Heritage, to investigate how gardening in the UK might be affected by a changing climate. Findings of the study are published in Gardening in the global greenhouse.

Climate change science

Global average temperatures have risen by nearly 0.8 °C since the late 19th century, and risen at about 0.2 °C per decade over the past 25 years.

Warming in the last 50 years is unprecedented in, at least, 1,300 years, and the 10 warmest years have all occurred since 1995.

This does not mean that next year will necessarily be warmer than last year, but the long-term trend is for rising temperatures.

Central England Temperature has risen by about 1 °C since the 1970s, with 2006 being the warmest on record. It is likely that there has been a significant influence from human activity on the recent warming.

Climate change scenarios, from UKCIP02 suggest that mean annual temperatures in the UK will increase by 2-3.5 °C by the 2080s, depending on emissions scenarios (high, medium, low) and the region. These increases will be associated with more hot, and very hot days, and less frost and snow.

Recent studies

Recent studies have found that average summer rainfall for northern Europe could decrease by between 5% and 20% by the end of the century. UKCIP02 also suggests that annual rainfall could decrease slightly as a net result of higher winter rainfall (10-30% higher by the 2080s, under the high emissions scenario) and the decreases in summer rainfall.

The year-to-year variation in rainfall could also increase, leading to an increased frequency of very dry summers and very wet winters.

What can climate scientists tell us about the future?

Recent warming has already caused earlier timing of spring events, and plant and animal ranges have shifted to higher altitudes and further towards the pole.