Background science
This website allows you to explore how different scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to climate change could change the geography of food insecurity in developing and least-developed countries. The website maps an index of vulnerability to food insecurity at national level. This is calculated based on exposure to climate-related hazards, sensitivity of agricultural production to those hazards, and the capacity of countries to cope with climate-related food shocks. By altering the levels of future global greenhouse gas emissions and/or the levels of adaptation, you can see how vulnerability to food insecurity changes over time, and compare and contrast these different future scenarios with each other and the present day.
Vulnerability to food insecurity in the present-day
The climate and food insecurity index shown on this website is a measure of vulnerability of the food system to climate-related hazards.
Vulnerability is calculated at a country level and is comprised of three components:
- Exposure to climate-related hazards,
- Sensitivity of national agricultural production to climate-related hazards,
- Adaptive capacity a measure of capacity to cope with climate-related food shocks.
Exposure
The exposure component of the index is calculated from a measure of the average length of flood and drought events in each country. This is constructed from gridded meteorological data for the baseline period (1981-2010). The exposure is only calculated over areas with a population density greater than 150 people per km2 and/or more than 1% of the area given over to crop production.
Sensitivity
The sensitivity component of the index is calculated using indicators relevant to agricultural production. These are measures of the amount of forest cover, rainfed agriculture and cereal crop yield per country.
Adaptive capacity
The adaptive capacity component of the index is calculated using socio-economic indicators relevant to the food security system. These are measures of rural and urban populations with access to water resources, the percentage of rural population, population growth rate, population below the poverty line ($2 per day), vulnerable employment, government effectiveness and the number of paved roads per country.
Criteria for inclusion
All data included in the vulnerability to food insecurity index correlates with the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) measure of undernutrition. Vulnerability to food insecurity as a result of weather events is most apparent in developing and least-developed countries, as they rely more heavily on in-country food production compared to the most developed countries which have access to markets. For this reason, OECD and EU countries are not included in the calculation. Small countries (< 500 km2) and those with few people and/or little or no agricultural production are also not included in the calculation.
Future projections of vulnerability to food insecurity
Future projections of the climate and food insecurity index have been calculated for a range of scenarios of different future global greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation levels.
Greenhouse gas emission scenarios
There are three scenarios of future global greenhouse gas emissions to choose from: low, intermediate or high emissions. These three scenarios correspond to climate model projections of the climate system response to three different greenhouse gas concentration pathways:
- The low emissions scenario represents a rapid and sustained reduction in future global greenhouse gas emissions resulting in an increase in global average temperature of around 2°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the 21st century. This scenario is also known as RCP2.6.
- The intermediate emissions scenario represents a modest reduction in future global greenhouse gas emissions resulting in an increase in global average temperature of around 2.5°C - 3°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the 21st century. This scenario is also known as RCP4.5.
- The high emissions scenario represents considerable future increases in global greenhouse gas emissions resulting in a rise in global average temperature of 4°C or more above pre-industrial levels by the end of the 21st century. This scenario is also known as RCP8.5.
The climate model projections are used to calculate future projections of the exposure component of the index. Twelve climate models from the latest generation of climate models used to inform the most recent Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change report (IPCC AR5) were used, and the average value of the index for each country across the models is shown.
Information about the model spread of the results
Scenarios of adaptation investment
There are three scenarios of different adaptation levels to choose from: high, low or no adaptation. The scenarios determine how sensitive agricultural production is to climate-related hazards and the capacity to cope with climate-related food shocks in the future. Applying an adaptation scenario changes the sensitivity and adaptive capacity components of the index.
The level of change follows standardised scenarios and the change was scaled to allow the most vulnerable countries to improve most relative to the present-day, and the least vulnerable countries to change the least:
- The ‘high’ adaptation scenario corresponds to a change of approximately 10-15% in the 2050s compared to the present-day, and a further change of approximately 10-15% in the 2080s compared to the 2050s.
- The ‘low’ adaptation scenario corresponds to a change of approximately 5-10% in the 2050s compared to the present-day, and a further change of approximately 5-10% in the 2080s compared to the 2050s.
- The no adaptation scenario maintains the sensitivity and adaptive capacity components of the index at the present-day level.
Technical detail about the methodology
Met Office
Our climate is changing. There have been observed increases in global temperatures, reductions in snow and ice and rising sea levels, and humans are responsible for at least half of the observed changes (IPCC, 2013).
Climate model projections show further changes to the climate system in years to come; these changes will depend on future concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Climate models project an increase in global average temperature, rising sea levels and changes to the water cycle under every future greenhouse gas concentration pathway. Furthermore, the changes experienced in the near future will be as a result of past emissions of greenhouse gases; this is climate change that we are committed to.
Climate models are used to explore the range of possible responses of the climate system to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. A low greenhouse gas concentration pathway could limit the increase in global average temperature to around 2°C above pre-industrial levels; the current target of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). A high greenhouse gas concentration pathway could see increases of 4°C or more.
The impacts of a rise in global average temperature will be felt differently at regional and local scales. Increases in extreme temperatures, frequency and severity of floods and droughts and intensity of storms will impact all aspects of human wellbeing, such as access to food and water resources, poverty and health (IPCC, 2014).
The Met Office Hadley Centre undertakes world-leading research in climate science and provides world-class guidance on the science of climate change. Met Office scientists work collaboratively with other organisations and sectors to further understand and communicate the potential impacts of climate change on human well-being, to inform policy makers.
Climate scientists from the Met Office Hadley Centre have worked in collaboration with food security analysts from the World Food Programme to better understand the relationship between climate change and food insecurity. [More information about the relationship between climate change and food insecurity.]
By bringing together expertise in climate science and food security the climate and food insecurity index has been developed, which measures vulnerability of the food system to climate-related hazards in developing and least-developed countries. This website allows exploration of possible future projections of the index under a range of climate change and adaptation scenarios; providing policy-relevant human food security outcomes for use in long-term food security adaptation planning.
World Food Programme
WFP’s vision is to eradicate hunger in our lifetime, a bold aim that is manifested in the Sustainable Development Goals and is at the centre of Agenda 2030. Zero Hunger cannot be achieved without urgent and ambitious action to address the challenge of climate change.
As the largest agency fighting hunger worldwide, WFP is working to understand the effects of climate change and help food-insecure communities prepare for, respond to, and recover from climate-related disasters. A large part of our work involves helping governments to analyse and understand the links between food security, climate hazards, and climate change so that they can take the necessary actions and investments to eradicate climate-related hunger in their country through more effective policy and programme.
Climate risks today have a disproportionately negative impact on food-insecure people, 80 percent of whom live in countries that are prone to natural disasters and face high levels of environmental degradation. Climate change will make these risks worse – and make the investments needed to achieve – and maintain – Zero Hunger even greater.
The Food Insecurity and Climate Change Vulnerability Index offers a window on our global future up to the 2080s, looking at how climate change may affect future vulnerability to food insecurity. Depending on our actions, future generations will inherit a world with less vulnerability than today – or a world with significantly more vulnerability to food insecurity. A world where keeping hunger at bay is achievable – or one where we will struggle to keep the scourge of hunger at bay.
WFP believes that hunger can be eradicated by 2030. But this rigorous scientific analysis presents a sobering picture, showing that climate change is making the task more difficult and costlier. It shows that even after 2030, because of climate change we will need to remain vigilant and continue to invest heavily in adaptation to preserve the gains we make in the next 15 years.
Massive increases in investment are needed to end hunger by 2030 and to enable the poorest people to build resilient livelihoods. But we must do more than simply achieve the SDGs – we must build a world where they are maintained and continue to improve. To do this, we must make sure we address the causes of climate change and continue to invest in resilience and adaptation after 2030 to protect the gains we will have made.
Find out more about how climate change impacts hunger.
